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Thousands of mourners have gathered to participate in the funeral procession of Ali Khamenei, the former Supreme Leader of Iran, as it crosses into Iraq. The procession is passing through the holy Shia cities of Najaf and Karbala, with a significant deployment of 25,000 Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to ensure security. This event is occurring against the backdrop of the 2026 Iran war, a joint U.S.-Israel military campaign that began earlier this year and resulted in Khamenei’s assassination. The procession is seen as a potential rallying point for Iranian and Iraqi forces, heightening tensions in the region.
Key Takeaways
- The funeral procession appears to suggest a deepened solidarity between Iranian and Iraqi forces, potentially impacting the regional power dynamics.
- Market pricing suggests a moderate decrease in the likelihood of the Iranian regime’s fall by the end of 2026, reflecting the perceived stability through the show of force at the procession.
- The current odds of the regime falling before 2027 are at 7.5% YES, having decreased from a previous 10% a week ago.
What to Watch
Observers should monitor any changes in the ceasefire status between the U.S. and Iran, as this could significantly influence market perceptions. Additionally, any defections within the IRGC or escalations in military actions could alter the outlook on Iran’s regime stability. Developments surrounding the funeral procession’s impact on regional sentiments and potential acts of retaliation will also be critical to watch.
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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