Labour overtakes Reform UK in polls for first time in over a year

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/uk/gallery/keir-starmer/index.html Labour has surpassed Reform UK in national polling for the first time in over a year, according to recent surveys. This shift marks a reversal for Reform UK, which had maintained a lead since March 2025 across various polls. The most notable result comes from a More in Common poll, placing Labour at 28% compared to Reform UK’s 24%, with the Conservatives trailing at 22%. Other polls, such as those from YouGov and Survation, show closer competition but still indicate a narrowing gap. This development could have significant implications for the upcoming Clacton by-election, where Nigel Farage of Reform UK is a key figure. Key Takeaways Recent polling data suggests a significant shift, with Labour overtaking Reform UK, reflecting a potential change in voter sentiment. Market pricing for the Clacton by-election appears to have responded to this shift, with the probability of Nigel Farage winning by a large margin decreasing. The dynamic in voter preference suggests increased competition among parties, which may influence future electoral outcomes. What to Watch Further polling data and political developments leading up t...