Lavrov accuses Ukrainian troops of terrorism in Sahel, claims French support

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has accused Ukrainian troops of engaging in terrorist activities against Sahel states. Lavrov further alleged that France is supporting armed groups in the region. This statement comes amid heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with potential implications for ongoing peace talks and the possibility of a ceasefire agreement. The claims could exacerbate the already fragile relations and impact international mediation efforts. The market for a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, currently stands at a 26.5% likelihood of a YES outcome, a slight increase from 26% a day ago, but a notable decline from 34% a week ago. Lavrov’s allegations may further complicate peace negotiations, as implied by the market’s cautious stance. The October 31, 2026, sub-market reflects a 10.5% chance of a ceasefire, down from 11% a day ago, while the August 31, 2026, window suggests a mere 1.8% probability. These developments suggest that Lavrov’s statements could be interpreted by markets as decreasing the chances of a near-term ceasefire, reflecting a more aggressive posture from the Russian side. Key Takeaways Lavrov’s accusa...