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Roberto Sánchez has accused Rafael López Aliaga of avoiding legal scrutiny for inflammatory remarks. López Aliaga’s chances of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election sit at 14.5% YES, down from 18% a day ago.
The drop in López Aliaga’s odds is tied to his recent incendiary comments and the criminal complaints that followed. The market has fallen 5 points in a single day. The June 7 runoff market could shift further if these controversies continue to cost him public support.
The “Rafael López Aliaga win” market has daily volume at $770,067 in face value, with $123,852 in actual USDC exchanged. Moving the price 5 points requires $11,290, so meaningful capital is needed to shift the market. The largest single move in the last 24 hours was a 5-point drop at 3:27 PM, likely a direct response to the escalating legal challenges.
López Aliaga’s rhetoric, which includes unfounded fraud claims and threats of “civil insurgency,” appears to be hurting his campaign. With elections fragmented among 43 parties, any misstep can cost real support. A bet on López Aliaga at 14.5¢ pays $1 if he wins, a 6.9x return, but that requires him surviving these legal complaints without further damage to his standing.
Watch for updates from Peru’s election authorities, particularly regarding the complaints against López Aliaga. Any official disqualification or formal investigation could push his odds lower still.
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