Market sees 3% chance of Bitcoin hitting record high this year

A year ago, Bitcoin was setting records. Now traders are pricing in a 3% chance it sets another one before 2026 ends. That number comes from prediction market pricing. It arrives with Bitcoin down roughly 25% since October 2025, when it peaked near $126,080. What the odds actually say As of October 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the low-to-mid $80,000 range, roughly $82,000 to $85,000. Depending on where in that band you measure, the drop from the all-time high works out to somewhere between 25% and 34%. On Polymarket, pricing as of October 22, 2026, gave Bitcoin a 3% probability of hitting $130,000 or higher this year. For the record to fall, Bitcoin would need to climb from the low $80,000s to above roughly $126,080. That means a rally of around 50% in about two months. Options traders on Deribit are a touch more generous, though only on a lower target. Their pricing implies a 20% to 25% chance that Bitcoin touches $100,000 by year-end. The distinction matters. Touching a level means a brief visit. The odds of Bitcoin actually closing the year above $100,000 sit lower than that. How sentiment got here The current gloom looks even sharper next to what people were saying earlier this ...