Merlier wins stage 12 as Pogačar maintains Tour de France lead

https://soudal-quickstepteam.com/en/team/tim-merlier

Tim Merlier achieved his third stage victory at the 2026 Tour de France by winning Stage 12, which covered a 179.1 km flat route from Circuit de Nevers Magny-Cours to Chalon-sur-Saône. This victory strengthens Merlier’s competitive position in the sprinters’ competition. Meanwhile, Tadej Pogačar maintained his lead in the general classification, holding a significant advantage over his closest competitor, Jonas Vingegaard. With 10 stages remaining until the race concludes in Paris, Pogačar’s continued dominance enhances his chances of securing the 2026 title.

The market for the Tour de France 2026 winner currently reflects strong confidence in Pogačar’s prospects, with prices suggesting a 95% probability of him winning the overall race. This figure has remained steady over the past 24 hours, indicating consistent support for his chances among market participants. The victory by Merlier and Pogačar’s maintained lead appear to have reinforced this outlook, further solidifying Pogačar’s standing as the favorite.

Key Takeaways

• Merlier’s third stage win suggests strong performance in the sprinters’ competition.
• Pogačar’s maintained lead in the general classification is consistent with his position as the race favorite.
• Market pricing reflects a 95% implied probability of Pogačar winning the Tour, consistent with his ongoing performance.

What to Watch

As the Tour de France progresses, attention will focus on upcoming stages that may challenge Pogačar’s lead. Key mountain stages and potential strategy changes by rival teams could impact the general classification. Watch for any signs of fatigue or strategic shifts from Pogačar’s team that could alter current market expectations. With 10 stages remaining, developments could significantly influence market dynamics and Pogačar’s chances.

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