Mojtaba Khamenei unconscious, odds of Iran regime fall rise to 13.5% by June 30

Mojtaba Khamenei is reportedly unconscious in Qom, increasing speculation about Iran’s leadership during the ongoing conflict. The odds of the regime falling by June 30 are now at 13.5% YES, up from 12% yesterday.

The report has affected the Iranian regime fall market, though it remains below last week’s 20% level. The June 30 sub-market shows traders considering the leadership vacuum, with 88 days until resolution. The potential power shift to an interim council and IRGC-aligned figures adds complexity to the situation.

The market sees $439,688 in face value traded daily, with $59,602 actual USDC changing hands. It would take $195,733 to shift the odds 5 percentage points, indicating strong trading activity. The largest 24-hour move was a modest 1-point spike, suggesting gradual changes.

This leadership turmoil is significant amid the U.S. ultimatum deadline. The regime’s response could influence the outcome. A YES share betting on regime fall by June 30 is priced at 13.5¢, offering a 7.4x return if successful.

Watch for signs of IRGC discord, unexpected Assembly of Experts meetings, or changes in U.S. rhetoric for stronger signals of regime instability.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.