Morgan Stanley ties S&P 500 growth to a $1.6 trillion AI spending wave

The S&P 500’s next growth chapter may be written in server racks. A new Morgan Stanley projection puts global AI compute investment by hyperscalers and neo-cloud providers at approximately $1.58 trillion in 2027. That spending is expected to make up roughly 5% of S&P 500 sales that year and about 25% of the index’s sales growth. The other notable detail is how it gets paid for. Half of the projected investment is expected to be financed by debt. The numbers behind the buildout The 2027 figure marks a steep climb from around $980 billion in 2026. Morgan Stanley expects the total to keep rising, reaching $1.81 trillion in 2028. The headline number also counts more than cash. It folds in lease commitments, which the bank estimates will contribute roughly $195 billion in lease capex in 2027, rising to $246 billion by 2028. Including leases pushes the projection 14% above earlier estimates that tracked only cash outlays. Oracle leads the lease pack at $57.2 billion. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google follow behind it. Across the group, hyperscalers currently hold over $1.1 trillion in pending lease commitments. Who collects the checks If AI spending is a gold rush, NVIDIA is sti...