Ninety One portfolio manager bets on Treasuries amid inflation concerns

While most of Wall Street has been piling into one side of the Treasury trade, a portfolio manager at Ninety One is doing something different. Jason Borbora-Sheen is betting that long-dated Treasuries are oversold and due for a comeback, built on a thesis that inflation is heading lower and that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s credibility will be vindicated. The trade and the thesis Borbora-Sheen’s strategy centers on a relative bet: 30-year Treasuries outperforming 10-year notes. That runs directly against the grain of the yield-curve steepener trade, which has been the consensus play among fixed-income managers for months. Since July 2026, long-dated bonds have sold off sharply. That selloff created what Borbora-Sheen apparently sees as a mispricing, an opportunity to buy 30-year paper at levels that overcompensate for inflation risk. The signal, in his reading, is that Warsh’s hawkish posture on inflation is more than rhetoric. Warsh has been emphatic about having “no soft inflation target,” a phrase designed to distinguish his approach from what some critics saw as a tolerance for above-target inflation during prior Fed leadership. Warsh’s credibility gap The Fed has kept its benchmark...