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The Bitcoin price has recently deviated from historical trends, particularly those that typically see the leading cryptocurrency experience a surge in October. This month, Bitcoin has retraced over 10%, erasing gains made earlier when it briefly reached a record high of $126,000.
The failure of the anticipated “Uptober” rally has contributed to a climate of uncertainty, even with potential bullish catalysts on the horizon, such as The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent rate cuts announced on Wednesday.
Bitcoin Price Struggles Amid Fed Caution, Trade Tensions
As attention shifts to November, often dubbed “Moonvember,” the focus is on the historical Bitcoin price performance during this month. Over the past 14 years, November has been BTC’s second strongest month after October, averaging gains of 10.3%.
Recent developments, including the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to further rate cuts and renewed trade tensions following President Trump’s meeting with China’s Chairman Xi, have triggered a risk-off sentiment across various assets.
Bitcoin futures have shown increased volatility, with prices dropping below crucial support levels around $110,000. Institutional interest has also slowed, as seen with Strategy (MSTR), which acquired only 778 Bitcoin in October—a steep decline of 78% compared to September’s purchases.
While ETF inflows remain positive, they have tapered off relative to earlier quarters, reflecting a sense of caution among investors in light of persistent inflation rates of 3.0% and stagnant hiring data.
On-chain metrics indicate that long-term holders are maintaining their positions, with their supply climbing to 76.2%. However, short-term traders have contributed to significant liquidations, totaling billions.
‘Moonvember’ On The Horizon
Looking ahead, historical data suggests that November could be favorable for the Bitcoin price, with solid median gains and peaks averaging around 40%. Predictions for 2025 vary, but many analysts remain optimistic.
One forecast anticipates a rally to $125,000, which would represent a nearly 18% increase from current levels, while others project prices could soar to $144,000 or even $150,000 if ETF inflows continue. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase have even suggested that Bitcoin could reach $165,000 by the close of 2025.
Key drivers for this potential growth include the recent 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed and the conclusion of quantitative tightening (QT), which could inject much-needed liquidity into the market.
Upcoming events, such as the anniversary of the Bitcoin Whitepaper and potential stablecoin regulations in Canada, may serve as additional catalysts.
However, the outlook is not entirely optimistic. Some models suggest that further dips could occur in early November if resistance levels hold. Geopolitical risks, including ongoing tariff threats, have the potential to amplify the growing Bitcoin price volatility.
Despite these challenges, bullish figures like Strategy’s Michael Saylor remain hopeful, predicting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year’s end, propelled by supportive policies on tokenization and stablecoins.
Models from PlanB also reflect this optimism, highlighting historical patterns that suggest a positive trajectory. Traders are leaning toward the notion of “Moonvember” as a possible catalyst for a bullish trend, particularly with altcoin rotations expected following recent consolidations.
As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at $106,595, recording losses of 3.6% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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