Nvidia signals downside risk for Micron before 2029

Nvidia has quietly laid out a roadmap for its memory purchases over the next several years, and the numbers tell a story with a very specific expiration date. The GPU giant has committed to $267 billion in forward purchase agreements for high-bandwidth memory and related supplies through its fiscal 2029, which ends in January 2030. After that? The spending falls off a cliff. The spending curve that bends sharply downward Nvidia’s fiscal year commitments break down like this: $92 billion in fiscal 2027, $87 billion in fiscal 2028, and $88 billion in fiscal 2029. Then comes fiscal 2030. Nvidia’s commitments drop to just $6 billion. That’s a roughly 93% decline from the prior year. Nvidia sources HBM from Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung, so the $267 billion pie gets sliced three ways. When the biggest buyer in your market signals it plans to spend 93% less in a given year, the pricing dynamics for your entire product category are about to change. Nvidia itself has acknowledged that memory prices have exceeded its own internal forecasts, a development that has been putting pressure on the company’s gross margins. What this means for Micron’s earnings trajectory Market analysts are projec...