October Rate Polymarket Odds Flip: Is a Fed Pause Likely?

October rate Polymarket odds have flipped. On September 27, traders priced a 64% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting. By September 30, the same Polymarket contract showed the reverse: no change at 57% and a 25-basis-point hike at 42%. That shift matters for Bitcoin. Earlier, right after the Fed’s September 16 decision, Charles Schwab reported that CME FedWatch put the chance of an October hike at 49%. The new Polymarket reading shows how quickly rate expectations can swing, and why no single snapshot tells the full story. The Fed’s September 16 hike set its target range at 3.75%–4.00%. Even with the latest repricing, neither outcome in October is locked in. Rate expectations can hit Bitcoin through several channels at once. Broader rate-hike odds in prediction markets can also swing quickly as data and Fed comments change traders’ views. Put Your Money Where Your Mouth is On PolymarketBitcoin and Fed Rates: What Do the Latest October Rate Polymarket Odds Show? Higher rates make cash and government bonds more attractive than speculative assets. They also raise borrowing costs and reduce the liquidity flowing into riskier investments. Bitcoi...