Odds for US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 drop to 1.8% as traders adjust expectations

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The Iranian conflict drags on with no resolution in sight. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.8% YES, down from 8% just a day ago.

Traders are adjusting expectations across related markets. The April 7 market reflects near-zero confidence in a quick resolution. The April 15 market also fell sharply to 8.5% YES from 18%. A significant 22-point jump is noted between April 30 and May 31, indicating traders expect a potential catalyst during this period.

Ceasefire markets have seen $4.5M in face value over the last 24 hours, with $536K in actual USDC. The cost to move the market by 5 percentage points varies, with the April 7 market needing $25,832, showing susceptibility to large trades, while May 31 requires $68,121, indicating more stability.

The absence of new developments or official statements suggests current odds mirror existing pessimism about diplomatic progress. With the April 7 deadline near, a YES share at 2¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs — a 50x return. This would require belief in a sudden diplomatic breakthrough, which seems unlikely.

Watch for actions from intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, and any changes in rhetoric from US or Iranian leaders. The UN’s decision on April 2 regarding force to secure shipping lanes could also influence odds if it increases international pressure for negotiations.