Oil steady as US-Iran talks stall, Hormuz shipping slows

Oil prices have remained steady as peace negotiations between the United States and Iran have stalled, causing a slowdown in shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz. The Brent crude benchmark hovered around $88.52, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $81.52, indicating that prices are holding at elevated levels. The slowdown in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global oil transportation, has seen daily transits drop to single digits, a significant decrease from pre-crisis levels. This development suggests a tighter shipping environment, contributing to ongoing supply concerns in the market. Key Takeaways Market pricing suggests that the stalling of US-Iran talks and slower shipping through Hormuz are consistent with scenarios where oil price movements are moderate. Current predictions indicate a low likelihood of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30, with the probability standing at 2.9% for that date. The term structure shows an increase in probability for a new high by December 31, suggesting potential catalysts in the coming months. What to Watch Observers should monitor developments in US-Iran relations and shipping acti...