5 hours ago
2
Several oil tankers have reversed course in the Persian Gulf, hesitating to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The market for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April” sits at 59.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 30 market dropped 4 points yesterday. The May 31 market remains stable at 86% YES. The gap between the two contracts suggests traders expect some resolution, but not before May.
Why it matters
Daily volume on the April 30 market is at $10,250 in USDC. Only $354 is needed to move the price 5 points, which means the order book is thin and vulnerable to large orders. The largest recent move was a 4-point drop at 6:46 PM.
The tanker reversals reflect the fragile ceasefire and ongoing blockade. Traders are hedging against immediate normalization. A YES share at 50.5¢ pays $1 if traffic normalizes by April 30, a 1.98x return. That bet requires believing in a diplomatic breakthrough or a reduction in conflict risk within two weeks.
What to watch
Announcements from the IRGC or CENTCOM. A confirmed increase in military presence or a new diplomatic initiative could move these contracts sharply in either direction.
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