Over $1.2 million wagered on Polymarket as Eaton and Palisades fires destroyed Los Angeles neighborhoods

While the Eaton and Palisades fires tore through Los Angeles County in January 2025, killing 31 people and leveling more than 16,000 structures, a parallel drama was playing out on Polymarket. Bettors placed over $1.2 million in wagers tied to outcomes of the fires, turning one of California’s worst natural disasters into a speculative event with odds and payouts. The volume was roughly ten times greater than what a recent San Francisco Giants game attracted on the same platform. What people were betting on The Polymarket contracts weren’t just simple over-under bets on acreage. Bettors could wager on how many acres would burn by specific deadlines, whether the fires would spread to particular geographic areas, and when containment would be achieved. Some reports put the total wagering volume as high as $1.3 million. Senators push back hard Nine US senators decided the line had been crossed. California’s Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla helped lead a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission demanding either strict regulatory limits or a complete shutdown of prediction markets tied to wildfires. The senators’ central concern went beyond taste. They flagged the possibility that...