2 hours ago
2
Pakistan deployed fighter jets to escort an Iranian delegation following US talks in Islamabad, fearing an Israeli strike. The Polymarket contract on Iran striking Israel by April 30, 2026, sits at 100% YES.
The escort followed inconclusive talks in Islamabad. The Iran strike market is fully priced at 100% YES, meaning traders treat military action as a settled outcome. The Israel military action against Iran contract for April 21 is at 8%, down from 12% yesterday, which points to skepticism about near-term Israeli action.
Face value traded across related markets is $208,364, while actual USDC transaction volume is $8,677. The order book shows $7,705 needed to move the Israel action market by 5 points, moderate liquidity. The largest movement was a 1-point dip earlier today; traders showed little reaction to the escort news itself.
The fighter jet escort signals regional tension but doesn’t change the underlying situation. At 100¢, a YES share pays $1 if Iran strikes by April 30, which is priced as a certainty. Traders should watch for shifts in Israeli military posture or statements from Netanyahu or Trump that could reopen the question.
The next Pentagon briefing or any IDF statements about operational changes would be the most direct catalysts for movement in these contracts.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
English (US) · 