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Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told Iran that Pakistan would act as an impartial mediator in the US-Iran conflict. The probability of Trump announcing an end to the US-Iran ceasefire by April 21, 2026, sits at 100% YES.
The market for the US-Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026, is fully priced at 100% YES. Traders appear to read Pakistan’s mediation as reinforcing the ceasefire rather than threatening it.
Separately, the market for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, dropped to 2% YES, down from 6% just 24 hours ago. Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement could marginally raise the odds of Iran agreeing to surrender its stockpile, but traders are pricing almost no chance of a quick resolution on uranium.
Volume across these markets is $39,286 in USDC. It takes roughly $9,564 to move the uranium market by 5 points, which means the book is thin enough that a single diplomatic development could reprice it fast. Buying YES at 2¢ offers a 50x return, but that bet requires a concrete breakthrough on nuclear negotiations before the end of April.
Watch for updates from the US delegation headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Islamabad. Any statement from Ali Khamenei or formal announcements from CENTCOM could move these markets immediately.
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