2 weeks ago
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One of Polymarket’s biggest spenders nearly doubled their pot on Donald Trump’s electoral victory this week.
Polymarket whale “Theo4” profited $21.9 million from betting on four Trump-focused markets on the Polygon-based prediction platform, including Trump’s win over Kamala Harris.
The user rightly predicted that Trump would also win the popular vote, an outcome that contradicted previous results. While Trump won the electoral college in 2016, he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, and he also lost the popular vote to Joe Biden in 2020.
Theo4 first made headlines after a New York Times report suggested that a Polymarket whale might be manipulating public perception and inflating Trump’s odds. The user, a professional French investor and trader, refuted the claim, attributing their strategy to personal bias and a data-driven approach.
Theo4 argued that national polls were skewed in favor of Harris and believed that many underestimated the Trump vote.
Polymarket’s largest election contract was also Theo4’s biggest investment. The market titled “Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?” amassed over $3 billion in volume, with the French user spending about $9 million on shares, which resolved on Nov. 6.
Prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi were seemingly vindicated when Trump was announced as president-elect of the United States.
These platforms, which allow users to bet on event outcomes, surged in popularity as the election approached earlier this year. However, they faced criticism from skeptics and regulators for allegedly promoting election gambling.
Rumors of political bias also floated, with legacy media channels claiming prediction platforms were highly partisan. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan dismissed the claims as unfounded, defending his company as nothing more than a data source.
Make no mistake, Polymarket single-handedly called the election before anything else. The global truth machine is here, powered by the people.
Shayne Coplan on X
Last night, Polymarket proved the wisdom of markets over the polls, the media, and the pundits.
Polymarket consistently and accurately forecasted outcomes well ahead of all three, demonstrating the power of high volume, deeply liquid prediction markets like those pioneered by…
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