Polymarket odds for CLARITY Act passage drop to 16% ahead of Senate deadline

The crypto industry’s best shot at a comprehensive regulatory framework is slipping through Congress’s fingers. Polymarket now assigns just a 16% probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026, a stunning collapse from the 82% peak the contract hit back in February. That’s not a typo. A bill that bettors once considered nearly a lock has seen its odds fall by more than 80% in roughly five months. Over $4M in trading volume on the Polymarket contract suggests this isn’t some thinly traded curiosity, either. What happened to the momentum The CLARITY Act, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633), actually had a pretty good run through the House. It passed on July 17, 2025, with a bipartisan vote of 294-134. The Senate Banking Committee reported on the bill on June 1, 2026, and updated text was released around July 22-23. The revised language incorporated ethics provisions that were supposed to grease the wheels for broader support. Instead, the bill stalled before reaching the Senate floor for debate. The practical deadline for action before the Senate’s summer recess was approximately August 7, 2026. Negotiators failed to reach a breakthrou...