Polymarket shows 53% odds of September rate hike while Fed futures markets sit at 32%

Two markets are looking at the same Federal Reserve and reaching very different conclusions. Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform, is pricing a 53% probability that the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Traditional interest rate futures tied to SOFR, the benchmark that replaced LIBOR, are implying something closer to 32%. Same central bank, same meeting, wildly different numbers. That gap is not just an interesting footnote. It is, at least in theory, a textbook arbitrage setup. What the numbers actually say Polymarket participants are also pricing a 63% chance of at least one rate hike from the Fed somewhere in the 2026 calendar year. The SOFR-linked futures market, by contrast, implies a 45-47% probability of no change at the September meeting, which puts its implied hike probability meaningfully lower than Polymarket’s read. The FOMC meeting in question is scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, which gives this divergence a concrete deadline. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate is the rate at which institutions lend and borrow cash overnight using US Treasury securities as collateral. Futures contracts tied to SOFR are how Wall S...