Prediction market bets $119K on OpenAI’s valuation dropping to $750B by year-end

Somewhere on Polymarket, traders have put between $119K and $132K behind the idea that OpenAI’s IPO closing market cap will land in the $500B to $750B range. The catch: the market itself thinks there’s only a 4-6% chance that actually happens. That’s a bet against a company currently valued at $852B on private markets. What the Polymarket contract actually says The contract in question asks traders to predict OpenAI’s IPO closing market capitalization, broken into various brackets. The $500B to $750B bracket, which would represent a meaningful haircut from the company’s last private valuation, has attracted a respectable amount of volume despite its long-shot odds. But the real star of the contract isn’t any valuation bracket. It’s the “No IPO” outcome, which commands a probability of 62-67%. In other words, roughly two-thirds of the money thinks OpenAI simply won’t go public before the deadline. The original market sentiment had pegged an 18% chance of OpenAI’s valuation falling to $750B by year-end, though Polymarket’s conditional pricing for that bracket in an IPO scenario has since compressed to the low single digits. OpenAI’s valuation trajectory OpenAI raised $122B in March 2...