3 hours ago
1
Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings have fallen for the seventh consecutive week to their lowest level since the war in Ukraine began, while the market on Putin being out as President of Russia by June 30 sits at 2.9% YES.
Market reaction
State pollster VTsIOM now puts Putin’s approval at 65.6%. The Polymarket contract on whether Putin will be out as President by June 30 has barely moved, sitting at 2.9% YES, down slightly from 3% a week ago. There are 67 days left until resolution.
The market is thin. Volume over the past 24 hours is $337 in USDC, and it takes just $818 to shift the odds by 5 points. Small trades could produce outsized price swings. At current levels, the market prices almost no immediate threat to Putin’s position.
Why it matters
Seven straight weeks of declining approval ratings represent the longest sustained drop since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. But a 65.6% approval rating, even if it’s the wartime low, is still high enough that traders see no realistic path to Putin leaving power within two months. The gap between falling domestic sentiment and near-zero market probability reflects how tightly Putin controls Russia’s political system.
What to watch
Buying YES at 2.9¢ pays $1 if Putin is out by June 30, a 34.5x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need to believe in an imminent catalyst: a palace coup, a health crisis, or some rupture in the security apparatus. Watch figures like Sergey Shoygu or Nikolai Patrushev for any signs of shifting loyalties, and track international developments or internal unrest that could weaken Putin’s hold.
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