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Rep. Mast, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Republicans’ patience with the ongoing war in Iran is wearing thin. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 36% YES.
Mast’s comments moved the Trump agreement to Iranian demands market, which rose 2 points from 34% yesterday. Traders appear to be pricing in Congressional pressure on Trump’s negotiating position. The US war declaration market by December 31 sits at 7.5% YES, down and suggesting traders see formal escalation as unlikely.
The Trump agreement market traded $5,592 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The cost to move that market 5 percentage points is $198, indicating moderate liquidity. The war declaration market requires $1,830 to shift odds by 5 points, meaning it takes considerably more capital to move.
Mast’s remarks point toward possible Congressional action to halt the war, which would lower the probability of a formal declaration. A YES share in the war declaration market at 7.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 13.3x return. To justify that bet, you’d need to believe in a major escalation within 259 days.
Watch for Congressional moves toward a “stop the war” resolution, which could shift sentiment and odds in both markets. Rep. Mast and other Republican figures on the Foreign Affairs Committee are the ones to track for signals of legislative action.
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