Reserve Bank of India to hold rates through 2026, says Reuters poll

India’s central bank isn’t touching the rate lever anytime soon. A Reuters poll of 72 economists found that 68 of them, roughly 95%, expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep its benchmark repo rate parked at 5.25% through the end of 2026, with growth concerns firmly in the driver’s seat over inflation worries. The poll, conducted from July 21 to 27, paints a picture of a central bank in wait-and-see mode. Why the RBI is staying put The core logic is straightforward: the Middle East conflict and surging oil prices are creating enough economic headwinds that cutting rates to stimulate growth feels premature, while hiking them to combat inflation feels reckless. Governor Sanjay Malhotra has emphasized a cautious, data-driven approach amid these external uncertainties. The RBI held rates unanimously in its June meeting and did the same in April. The upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-5, is widely expected to produce the same result. The RBI has also revised its economic forecasts for fiscal year 2027, and the numbers tell the story. Real GDP growth is now pegged at 6.6%, a downward revision reflecting the drag from external shocks. Meanwhile, the inflati...