2 hours ago
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Roberto Sánchez has widened his lead over Rafael López Aliaga with 93.804% of votes counted in Peru’s 2026 presidential election. López Aliaga’s chances of winning sit at 5.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday and 30% a week ago.
The drop in López Aliaga’s odds follows the latest ONPE results. In the 2026 presidential election winner market, traders have sold his position steadily over the past week as Sánchez’s lead has grown with each batch of counted votes.
The decline extends to the runoff market, where López Aliaga’s chances of advancing with Alfonso López Chau are also falling. With less than 7% of votes left to count, the gap appears difficult to close.
Daily trading volume is at $9,451 in USDC, with a $14,001 cost to move odds by 5 percentage points. That’s moderate liquidity. The largest single move was a 1-point spike, meaning substantial shifts require significant capital. The pattern has been a steady decline rather than abrupt drops.
At 5.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if López Aliaga wins, a 18.2x return. That payout requires believing in a dramatic turnaround with the count nearly complete.
Watch for official announcements from the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) or further ONPE updates. Unexpected vote shifts or legal challenges could move López Aliaga’s odds, though the remaining vote share leaves little room for reversal.
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