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Russia launched its largest air assault on Ukraine this year, targeting multiple cities overnight with over 300 missiles and drones. The “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026” market sits at 1.8% YES.
The odds were already low at 2% a week ago and have since dipped further. The scale of the attack signals Russia is not moving toward negotiations, and the April 30 ceasefire market reflects that. With 14 days to resolution, there is very little time for de-escalation.
The ceasefire market has a face value of $101,700, but only $1,907 in actual USDC has changed hands, making it a thin market. It takes $4,852 to move the odds five points, so even minor developments can shift the price quickly.
The conflict is escalating, and a near-term ceasefire looks increasingly unlikely. At a price of 1.8¢, a YES share pays out $1 if a ceasefire occurs by April 30, a 55.6x return. Buying YES at this price requires believing in a sudden diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for shifts in diplomatic posture from the U.S., Türkiye, or Saudi Arabia. A change in language or unexpected negotiation announcements could move this market.
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