Russia raises 2026 oil export outlook to 244.7 million tons despite lowest production since 2009

Russia just bumped its 2026 crude oil export forecast to 244.7 million tons, an increase of 7.5 million tons from its previous estimate issued in May. On the surface, that looks like a country flexing its energy muscles. Dig a little deeper and the picture gets more complicated. The export boost isn’t coming from a production surge. It’s coming from the opposite: Russia’s refineries are getting hammered, leaving more unprocessed crude available to ship overseas. Production is falling, exports are rising Russia’s oil and condensate production for 2026 is now forecast at 494.2 million tons. That would be the country’s lowest output since 2009, down significantly from an estimated 511.4 million tons in 2025. The ongoing conflict with Ukraine has taken a measurable toll on Russian energy infrastructure. Drone strikes on refineries have reduced domestic processing capacity, creating a paradox where less production somehow translates into more exports. With refineries offline or operating at reduced capacity, Russia simply has fewer places to send its crude domestically. So it ships it abroad, primarily to China and India, the two buyers that have been happy to absorb discounted Russian ...