2 hours ago
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Russia’s State Duma passed the crypto regulation bill in its first reading. Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April sits at 66% YES, up from 44% yesterday.
Market reaction
The market moved sharply, with a 5-point spike in Bitcoin’s price target odds for April. Russia recognizing crypto as property and allowing cross-border use signals potential demand increases. The Bitcoin $80,000 market is now a two-thirds bet on hitting that mark, meaning traders are pricing in a bullish impact from Russia’s legal shift. The $150,000 market remains flat at 0.1% YES.
Why it matters
With $105,235 in actual USDC traded daily, the $80,000 market has real liquidity behind it. It takes $24,792 to move the price 5 points, which points to solid institutional support. The largest single move, a 5-point spike, happened at 8:48 AM, suggesting a large order or series of orders pushed the market higher.
What to watch
For Bitcoin traders, legal recognition in Russia could shift demand dynamics, especially given the geopolitical backdrop. At 66¢, a YES share for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 offers a 1.52x return. That bet requires confidence in cross-border crypto adoption and increased Russian demand.
Watch for further developments in Russia’s legislative process or moves by crypto exchanges to respond to the new regulation. Keep an eye on BlackRock’s ETF activities and any macroeconomic signals that could affect Bitcoin’s price.
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