Russia trims 2026 natural gas production forecast to 688.4 bcm

Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has quietly trimmed its 2026 natural gas production forecast to 688.4 billion cubic meters, a 0.3% reduction from the previous estimate of 690.4 bcm. The updated socio-economic development forecast paints a complicated picture for the world’s largest natural gas exporter. Pipeline gas export projections were actually revised upward by 1.3% to 115.5 bcm, from 114 bcm previously. And the LNG export forecast held steady at 40.3 million tons. The numbers behind the narrative Russia’s actual natural gas production in 2025 came in at 662.7 bcm. The 2026 forecast of 688.4 bcm would represent a meaningful year-over-year increase, suggesting that domestic and near-market demand remains healthy enough to keep wells pumping. LNG exports tell a similar story of ambition. The 40.3 million ton target for 2026 would be a significant jump from the 30.3 million tons Russia actually produced in 2025. Moscow is also eyeing 46.9 million tons by 2027. Average contract prices for gas exports to distant markets were revised upward to $336.3 per 1,000 cubic meters, compared to the earlier estimate of $308.4. But there’s a catch. Gas prices for deliveries to China ...