S&P 500 earnings growth expected at 27%, with Micron and Nvidia doing the heavy lifting

The S&P 500 is heading into third-quarter earnings season with a headline growth number most companies would envy. Consensus estimates point to 27% year-over-year growth in earnings per share, according to a Goldman Sachs report from early October 2026. Look closer, though, and the party has a short guest list. Micron and Nvidia alone are projected to supply more than one-third of that growth. A big number with a narrow base The 27% figure marks a slowdown from last quarter. Goldman’s report puts second-quarter EPS growth at 33% once distortions are adjusted out. The engine behind it all is artificial intelligence. Spending on AI infrastructure is anticipated to drive more than half of the index’s overall earnings increase. The sector math is even more lopsided. Information technology and energy together are expected to contribute nearly 80% of total EPS growth for the quarter. The top 10 contributors are projected to generate roughly 68% of the index’s earnings growth. Micron and Nvidia take center stage Micron Technology has already shown what a memory boom looks like on an income statement. The company reported EPS growth of 1,003% year-over-year for its fiscal third quarter...