Saudi Aramco warns of 18-month recovery for oil inventories after Strait of Hormuz disruption

Saudi Aramco just told the world what energy traders already feared: even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow, it will take at least 18 months to refill global oil inventories. That’s not a worst-case scenario. That’s the optimistic one. During Aramco’s Q2 2026 earnings call on August 4, CEO Amin Nasser laid out the damage in stark terms. The US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which erupted in February 2026, has drained an estimated 2.6 billion barrels from global supply on a cumulative basis. After accounting for offsets like pipeline rerouting and strategic reserve releases, the net loss still clocks in at roughly 1.8 billion barrels. The numbers behind the shock To put that 1.8 billion barrel deficit in perspective, refilling it at a rate of 2.1 million barrels per day would take the full 18 months Nasser outlined. Nasser characterized the disruption as “the largest supply shock of oil in history.” The Strait of Hormuz normally handles roughly a fifth of the world’s petroleum consumption. Aramco’s own production tells part of the story. Average output in Q2 2026 fell to 9.5 million barrels per day, a steep decline from 12.8 million barrels per day during the same quarter a year...