Saudi-backed Yemeni forces regain Bab al-Mandab from Houthis

Photo: Tom Fisk / Pexels Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Yemen announced on Friday that Saudi-backed Yemeni forces have regained control of the Bab al-Mandab area, a strategic chokepoint on the Red Sea, from Houthi forces. This development follows recent military advances by the Yemeni forces in the region, reversing Houthi gains made along Yemen’s southwestern coast in September. The Houthi movement, supported by Iran, has not issued an immediate response to the ambassador’s statement, though Houthi media had previously denied losing control of the area. Key Takeaways Market pricing suggests that the removal of Houthi forces from Bab al-Mandab by Saudi-backed Yemeni forces is seen as a setback for the Houthis, potentially diminishing the likelihood of their advancement into Aden. The probability of Houthi forces entering Aden by October 31, 2026, has decreased marginally, now standing at 7.5% from 8% a day ago and 10% a week ago. The longer-term outlook for Houthi entry into Aden by December 31, 2026, also reflects a decrease in confidence, with the probability now at 24.5%, down from 28% previously. What to Watch Observers will be closely monitoring any official responses or strateg...