2 hours ago
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Sen. Thom Tillis has removed his hold on Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 is now at 96% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The May 1 market is priced at just 1.1% YES. Traders have largely dismissed the possibility of a confirmation in the next seven days. The real action is in the May 15 market, which leaped 67 points within a day. Traders appear to expect the confirmation process to accelerate now that the DOJ has closed its probe into current Chair Jerome Powell.
The June 30 contract sits at 98.1% YES. But the market’s attention is on the near term: there’s a 95-point spread between May 1 and May 15, pointing to high expectations for movement in the next two weeks.
Why it matters
The May 15 contract saw $17,756 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, compared to $193 for the May 1 contract. A 20-point spike at 2:18 PM suggests a large order drove the shift, likely in response to Tillis’s announcement. With just $1,590 needed to move the May 15 odds by 5 points, the market is liquid enough to reflect real sentiment but still sensitive to large trades.
Tillis’s hold was the main procedural obstacle to Warsh’s confirmation. Removing it clears the way for a Senate Banking Committee vote and floor action. At 1¢, a YES share for the May 1 market pays $1, a 100x return if confirmed by then. But the odds say traders don’t expect that timeline. The May 15 window is where the market sees the likeliest resolution.
What to watch
Keep an eye on the Senate Banking Committee’s next steps. A scheduled hearing or a formal vote to advance Warsh would push odds higher. Also watch for signals from key Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, whose stance could sway undecided votes.
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