2 hours ago
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Senator Rick Scott’s backing for the Strait of Hormuz blockade signals continued U.S. support for maintaining it. The odds of Trump announcing the blockade’s lift by May 31 now sit at 78%, down from 90% yesterday.
Market reaction
Scott’s comments moved the Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market. The odds for an announcement by April 19 dropped to 8%, down from 28% over the last 24 hours. The term structure shows a 70-point gap between April 19 and May 31, meaning traders expect any resolution well after the near-term window.
Volume is $29,602 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. It takes $1,419 to move the May 31 odds by 5 percentage points, a sign of moderate liquidity. The largest move was a 5-point drop at 12:19 PM, responding to Scott’s remarks. The April 19 sub-market is thinner, requiring $3,849 for a comparable move.
Why it matters
Scott framed the blockade as leverage against China’s oil supply chain, not just as an Iran-specific measure. This positions the blockade within U.S.-China-Iran policy, making a quick reversal less likely while Scott and allied senators publicly support it. Traders should weigh this: a YES share at 78¢ pays $1 if the blockade lifts by May 31, but that requires a major diplomatic breakthrough within 43 days.
What to watch
Statements from the White House or CENTCOM, any new U.S.-Iran-China diplomatic contacts, and whether other senators echo Scott’s position. A shift in rhetoric or policy could move these odds fast.
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