SpaceX regains lead as favorite for biggest IPO of 2026 on Polymarket

SpaceX is back on top in the race for the biggest IPO of 2026, at least according to the people putting money on it. On October 16, Polymarket odds showed the rocket company retaking the lead as favorite for the year’s largest public debut by market cap. The trigger was a cooling in valuation expectations for its main rival, Anthropic. A $500 billion haircut, on paper The shift traces back to a Reuters report published on October 15. It said investors are now weighing a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion for Anthropic’s upcoming IPO. That is a meaningful step down. Expectations had previously been pegged at around $2 trillion. The recalibration landed alongside Anthropic’s third-quarter financial update. The AI company reported revenue of $16.8 billion for Q3, up 45% from the $11.6 billion it posted in Q2. Anthropic’s Q2 revenue had doubled from its Q1 figure. Going from doubling to growing 45% is still rapid expansion, but the direction of travel matters to investors pricing in years of future growth. Anthropic’s IPO roadshow is expected to kick off the week of November 9. A potential trading date is being eyed for around late November. The number SpaceX already put on the b...