SpaceX’s $194 billion share unlock exposes a major risk in Aave’s tokenized stock ambitions

About 1.3 billion SpaceX shares become eligible for sale on Oct. 22, worth roughly $194.3 billion at the Oct. 20 close of $147.89.A week earlier, Aave Labs proposed accepting tokenized SpaceX shares (SPCXc) as collateral on its V4 Equities Hub on Base. Aave's risk adviser LlamaRisk published its assessment of the listing on Oct. 15 with the largest unlock dated for early November, and SpaceX's earnings date pulled that release forward by about two weeks.LlamaRisk modeled the earnings-linked release for Nov. 5 to Nov. 9 using third-party earnings estimates.SpaceX confirmed on Oct. 16 that it would report on Oct. 20, when it posted about $14.6 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in net income, which places the release on Oct. 22.In the public thread reviewed as of Oct. 20, the assessment carried the November window, and the original assessment stood as the latest entry.A smaller release of about 328.4 million shares, worth $48.6 billion at the same price, arrives Oct. 26. The Oct. 22 tranche is 28% of a roughly 4.691 billion-share lockup pool, which adds about 45% to the 2.9043 billion shares already tradable. LlamaRisk's calendar had the larger tranche arriving later and calculated ...