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Spain has made a habit of ending French tournament dreams, and the betting markets have noticed.
The streak that started in Munich
On July 9, 2024, Spain knocked France out of the UEFA EURO 2024 tournament with a 2-1 semifinal victory in Munich. France’s Randal Kolo Muani opened the scoring early, finding the net in the 9th minute.
Spain’s response was swift and decisive. Lamine Yamal equalized in the 21st minute, and Dani Olmo followed just four minutes later with the go-ahead goal in the 25th minute.
Spain went on to win the entire EURO 2024 tournament. Then it happened again. On June 5, 2025, Spain met France in the UEFA Nations League semifinal. Spain won 5-3.
Two knockout stage meetings in under a year, both won by Spain.
The World Cup picture and what prediction markets are pricing in
At the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Spain recently edged Portugal 1-0 in the knockout stages. Current betting odds favor a France vs. Argentina final, a rematch of the 2022 final in Qatar.
Spain has beaten France in their last two competitive knockout meetings by a combined score of 7-4. If both Spain and France continue advancing, a semifinal rematch is on the table.
Why this matters beyond the pitch
Platforms like Polymarket and Azuro have turned major sporting events into liquid, tradeable markets where users can take positions on outcomes with real money at stake.
Betting markets are pricing in a France-Argentina rematch as the most likely final, while Spain has beaten France in their last two competitive knockout meetings. Spain’s dominance over France creates debate around whether France is overvalued and Spain undervalued in World Cup futures markets.
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