Strait of Hormuz to be ‘worthless’ in two years, says US Treasury Secretary

In a recent statement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will be “worthless” within two years. This comment comes amid ongoing tensions involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, particularly over control of the Strait. The region has experienced heightened military activity, despite a ceasefire and interim deals earlier this year. Bessent’s remarks suggest a lack of optimism about the future stability and strategic importance of the Strait, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. This statement may influence perceptions about the likelihood of reaching a U.S.-Iran agreement to restore normalcy in the region. Key Takeaways Bessent’s statement appears to reflect a pessimistic outlook on the future strategic value of the Strait of Hormuz. Market pricing suggests a decrease in the probability of a U.S.-Iran agreement, as evidenced by declining YES odds across relevant markets. Recent activity in the region, including naval blockades and attacks on shipping, appears consistent with scenarios where an agreement is less likely. What to Watch Observers will monitor developments in the U.S.-Iran dialogue, particularly any new statements f...