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Michael Saylor built his reputation on a simple thesis: buy Bitcoin, keep buying Bitcoin, never sell. CryptoQuant thinks it’s time to complicate that playbook.
On June 23, the on-chain analytics firm published a report urging Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, to pump the brakes on its aggressive accumulation strategy. The core argument is less about Bitcoin and more about basic financial hygiene: the company’s liquidity position has deteriorated to a point where buying more Bitcoin before shoring up cash reserves is a meaningful risk.
The numbers that are making analysts nervous
Strategy’s USD cash reserves dropped 38% in 2026, falling to roughly $1.1 billion by mid-June. At the same time, annual dividend obligations on its STRC preferred shares have quadrupled to approximately $1.2 billion per year.
The dividend coverage ratio tells the story most clearly. Strategy went from having over seven years of dividend runway to just 14 months, essentially in the span of one market cycle. CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, specifically recommended that the company rebuild reserves to around $2.8 billion, which would represent 24 months of coverage, before resuming any Bitcoin purchases.
STRC preferred shares were trading around $82.50 in mid-June, roughly 17.5% below par value.
CryptoQuant estimates that Strategy is sitting on approximately $10.6 billion in aggregate unrealized Bitcoin losses, with every purchase made between 2024 and 2026 currently underwater relative to prevailing market prices.
847,000 Bitcoin and a structural dilemma
Strategy currently holds roughly 847,000 Bitcoin, a position that makes it the dominant force in corporate treasury Bitcoin ownership. CryptoQuant pegs Strategy’s share at approximately 76% of all Bitcoin held by corporate treasury entities globally.
CryptoQuant explicitly advised against selling to improve cash reserves, noting that divesting at current loss levels would simply crystallize the damage rather than fix the underlying problem. The firm’s preferred solution is to focus on raising capital through dividends or new share issuance rather than liquidating Bitcoin holdings.
The recommendation to develop a model for potential sales during future market rallies is the sharpest departure from Saylor’s public doctrine. Saylor has been categorical about never selling Bitcoin. CryptoQuant is suggesting the company needs at least a contingency plan, a set of conditions under which selling would be the rational move, even if that plan is never triggered.
What this means for the broader market
CryptoQuant’s warning is partly about Strategy specifically and partly about the model it represents. A number of companies have followed Saylor’s playbook, adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets as a treasury reserve asset. If the originator of that strategy runs into a liquidity wall, it raises questions about whether smaller imitators have stress-tested their own positions.
The risk of intermediate Bitcoin cycle peaks is a specific concern Moreno flagged. If Bitcoin rallies hard and then corrects before Strategy has rebuilt its cash position, the company could find itself caught between the need to service preferred dividends and a Bitcoin treasury worth less than the peak valuations it was carried on.
Strategy’s ability to issue new equity or preferred shares at favorable terms depends heavily on market confidence. If that confidence erodes, the capital raise option that CryptoQuant sees as the cleanest solution becomes more expensive precisely when the company needs it most.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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