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The Swiss National Bank announced a CHF 8.2 billion loss on foreign currency holdings. On Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sit at 1.1% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
The SNB losses and Middle East tensions are complicating the macro picture. The ECB rate decision market is unchanged at 0.1% YES. Bitcoin traders are more skittish. The ongoing US-Iran conflict, combined with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has created an uneasy backdrop. The Bitcoin market shows declining odds as negative macro sentiment and energy market volatility weigh on pricing.
Volume for the Bitcoin market is $99,646 in face value over the last 24 hours, with $1,254 in actual USDC traded. It takes $3,304 to move the market 5 percentage points, which means moderate liquidity that can still be pushed around by significant orders. The largest price move was a drop from 2% to 1.1% in the past day as traders re-evaluated risk.
The ceasefire’s expiration is the main thing to watch. Any breakdown could spike oil prices and further pressure the market. At 1.1¢, a YES share on Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 pays $1 if realized. For this bet to pay off, you’d need to believe that tensions escalate or economic conditions worsen significantly from here.
Watch the US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan and any developments in the Strait of Hormuz. A shift in diplomatic relations or energy supply disruptions could move this market quickly.
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