The CLARITY Act just ran out of calendar and crypto regulation may not recover until 2028

The House killed eight voting days, Polymarket odds crashed from 82% to 16%, and the ethics clause nobody can agree on may bury the most important crypto bill in a generation. Summary The Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act is set for September 15, but House Republican leaders canceled the weeks of September 21 and 28, leaving just four voting days before lawmakers leave Washington until after the November 3 midterm elections. Polymarket odds for the bill becoming law in 2026 collapsed from 82% in February to roughly 16% in early September, while Galaxy Digital cut its own estimate to 10% on August 14. The ethics clause banning the president, vice president, and members of Congress from issuing or sponsoring digital assets is the single provision most likely to kill bipartisan support, with Democrats calling the current language toothless and Republicans warning stronger restrictions would lose White House backing. If cloture fails, crypto regulation defaults to a patchwork of agency rulemaking from the SEC, CFTC, OCC, and FASB that can be reversed by any future administration, with no realistic path to unified federal legislation before 2029. The week of September 15 carries th...