The Clarity Act stall: why crypto’s most important bill could fail and what happens next

Prediction markets give the Clarity Act a 37% chance of passing this year, Bernstein warns failure would trigger another selloff, and JPMorgan says further delays risk pushing tokenization off public blockchains entirely. Summary Bernstein said on August 3 that failure to pass the Clarity Act would likely send crypto markets lower, but argued U.S. regulators would accelerate rulemaking under Project Crypto to compensate. JPMorgan warned that fading legislative odds could push tokenization onto traditional financial infrastructure instead of public blockchain networks, a structural risk for the entire crypto industry. Prediction markets now imply a 37% chance of the Clarity Act passing in 2026, down from above 70% in early spring, after the Senate prioritized other legislation ahead of its summer recess. The bill remains deadlocked over ethics provisions, DeFi guidance, stablecoin yield rules, and anti-money laundering requirements, despite resolving several contentious issues earlier in committee. Bernstein expects crypto’s political influence to remain strong ahead of U.S. midterm elections and sees the current downturn ending in late Q3 or early Q4, helped by continued White Hous...