The Confirmation Dividend

The finding A thousand headlines cross a screen on a normal day, and almost none of them move a market anyone cares about. The useful question is not what happened, which every feed will tell you, but which of these a market will actually react to, known early enough to matter. Vera reads incoming news and sorts it in advance, before the price moves, into stories worth watching and stories to set aside. The gap between the two is wide and consistent. On markets sitting still, with no move already underway to take the credit, the news Vera flagged went on to move a price 2 cents or more about 23% of the time. The news it set aside did so about 8% of the time, roughly a third as often. Across every market in the window, not just the quiet ones, the flagged rate is about 35% against 13% for set-aside news, a gap of about 21 points. The more sure the tool, the more often the market moved. The Confirmation Dividend · Vera Research The test The study covers more than 200,000 news-to-market pairings from April 22 to June 30, 2026, matched from tens of thousands of stories to more than 3,000 prediction markets. For each pairing the group was fixed in advance, from what Vera read the moment...