The Fed might hike in September. Here is what that does to every crypto thesis.

CME FedWatch odds for a September rate hike have surged past 66% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech and oil prices driven above $90 by the Iran conflict. Bitcoin is holding $78,000 after a 25% August rally, but the structural question remains unanswered: does ETF demand change what a rate hike does to crypto, or does it just delay the pain? Summary CME FedWatch pricing shows a 66% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, up from 35% before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address. Barclays now forecasts two rate hikes in 2026, in September and December, reversing its earlier hold call and raising the terminal rate outlook. Bitcoin gained 25% in August, its best month since November 2024, while spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $3.52 billion in net inflows across 16 of 21 trading days. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50% to 3.75% after three cuts in 2025; a September hike would be the first increase since July 2023, ending the longest pause since before the pandemic tightening. Brent crude surged above $91 per barrel after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, with the PCE inflation index running at 3.7% over...