The Metric That Preceded Every Bitcoin Rally Just Flashed Green: Is a BTC Surge Next?

In some rare cases, BTC's price had exploded by triple digits after this signal.

Bitcoin’s price climbed to a six-week peak earlier this morning, touching $76,000 after it broke above $70,000 last week. Despite retracing by nearly two grand since then, the asset is still up by $11,000 since its February 28 low when it plummeted immediately after the strikes in the Middle East began.

Now, though, there are more bullish hints ahead, as popular analyst Ali Martinez brought up a key signal that has led to all major BTC rallies in the past three years.

Funding Rates Turn Negative

The funding rates are periodic, small fee payments exchanged between traders holding short and long positions in perpetual futures contracts, keeping those prices aligned with the actual spot BTC price. When the rates are positive, this means that longs are paying shorts, and vice versa.

Although some consider positive rates to be bullish since BTC’s perp price is higher than the spot one as long positions dominate, Ali Martinez actually believes in the opposite and outlined historical examples to prove his theory. The analyst with almost 165,000 followers on X noted that BTC funding rates turning negative is “a signal that has preceded every major relief rally of the last 3 years.”

“Market sentiment is currently at a ‘peak fear’ reset. History shows that when the crowd pays to short, the local bottom is usually in. We’ve seen this script play out with surgical precision:

• Dec 2022: from $17,800 to $24.8k (+39%)

• Mar 2023: from $20,000 to $30,700 (+53%)

• Aug 2023: from $26,400 to $73,000 (+176%)

• Sept 2024: from $58,000 to $104,500 (+80%)

• Apr 2025: from $94,700 to $111,600 (+18%)

• June 2025: from $107,000 to $124,700 (+17%)”

After bitcoin’s breakout past $70,000, the funding rates have reset to -0.004%. The analyst believes smart money is “watching for the inevitable short squeeze” and if history is to keep that 100% strike rate on this indicator, the current dip is “the coiled spring for the next leg up.”

Did the Rally Take Place Already?

Martinez’s original post came as bitcoin’s price traded around $71,000. In the following 24 hours, though, the asset climbed to $76,000, hitting its highest price tag since early February. That’s a 7% gain in a day. The question is whether this was already the rally that he talked about, a claim that could have some substance given the fact that the relief pumps after the funding rates turned negative in the past couple of examples have declined in terms of percentages.

In addition, BTC’s latest moves are mostly impacted by the developments in the Middle East, so if something big is to occur there, more volatility could ensue almost immediately. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency has outperformed all other asset classes, including gold, since the war began, which could be another positive sign for its short-term price moves.

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