Traders see 57% chance of Anthropic IPO in November

Prediction market traders are giving Anthropic slightly better than even odds of going public before December, with platforms like Polymarket showing 54-58.5% probability of an IPO by November 30, 2026. Kalshi, meanwhile, has priced the chance of an IPO announcement before December 1 at 54%. Those odds climb meaningfully if you extend the window. By December 31, the probability jumps to roughly 74-79%. The road to going public Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on June 1, 2026. The original target was an October launch. That timeline has since shifted to November, reportedly to incorporate Q3 earnings data ahead of US midterm elections. A public prospectus is expected in late September, with a marketing roadshow kicking off in mid-October. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citi are lined up as lead underwriters. The company is also reportedly seeking a $15 billion revolving credit facility to support its growth trajectory. On top of that, Anthropic is exploring a capital raise of up to $100 billion to facilitate the IPO itself. A nearly $1 trillion company before it even lists Its last private valuation landed at $965 billion f...