2 hours ago
2
Traders are pricing in a growing likelihood of US-Iran conflict resolution, with the odds of a permanent peace deal by April 30 doubling from 17% last week to 46.5% YES.
Market reaction
The ceasefire market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 8% YES. The May 31 permanent peace deal market is at 65.5% YES, and the June 30 market at 66% YES. Oil reaching $90 by June is also being priced in at those levels, as ongoing disruptions like the Strait of Hormuz closure keep prices elevated even as diplomatic progress accelerates.
The market for Trump’s agreement to Iranian oil sanction relief is less affected, with odds stable at 36% YES. Traders appear to view immediate sanctions policy changes as unlikely, separate from the broader conflict resolution trajectory.
Why it matters
Trading volume across US-Iran ceasefire markets hit $699,190 in actual USDC over 24 hours. Order book depth for moving the April 30 market price by 5 percentage points requires $18,640, which points to institutional-level participation rather than thin retail speculation.
The tension between conflict resolution (which would normally push oil prices down) and active disruptions (which keep them elevated) creates a complex pricing environment. A breakdown in talks or new military actions could reverse the recent shift in odds quickly.
What to watch
Upcoming negotiations are the key variable, particularly any statements from CENTCOM or actions by intermediaries like Oman and Qatar. For those betting on a permanent peace deal by June 30, buying YES at 72.5¢ offers a 1.52x return if the deal materializes.
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