Trump concession sends CLARITY Act odds above 32% before make-or-break Senate vote

The CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law climbed above 32% as Senate Republicans unveiled their final compromise before Tuesday’s cloture vote.Polymarket traders pushed the probability of the landmark crypto market-structure legislation being enacted in 2026 to its highest level since Aug. 2 after Republicans released a 635-page final draft designed to resolve several disputes that have held up the bill.The move marks a turnaround from weeks of skepticism surrounding the legislation, though prediction-market pricing remains well below levels seen earlier this year. The contract reached about 82% in February before political disputes over ethics, stablecoin rewards and decentralized-finance protections complicated its path through the Senate.Tuesday provides the next test. Senators are scheduled to vote on cloture on the motion to proceed with H.R. 3633, a procedural step that would require 60 votes and allow the chamber to begin considering the legislation. If cloture is invoked, the final text would then be offered as a substitute amendment.Republicans said the latest version incorporates 126 substantive changes Democrats requested after more than a year of negotiations. The revi...