Trump considers new strikes on Iran after meeting with security team

President Trump met with his national security team around May 16-17 to weigh options for fresh military strikes against Iran. The decision, which could come at any point barring a diplomatic breakthrough, adds another chapter to a conflict that has rattled global markets for over a year.

What’s happening and why it matters

The broader US-Iran conflict traces back to 2025, when US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iranian sites. Iran retaliated, the US imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the situation has been simmering at a dangerous temperature ever since.

Negotiations in Pakistan over Iran’s nuclear program have stalled multiple times. Trump has reportedly issued demands for the reopening of shipping routes and threats regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

As of late May 2026, Trump appears to be leaning toward military action. The administration is caught between two paths: limited strikes on military installations or critical infrastructure, and a diplomatic resolution that seems increasingly unlikely. Middle Eastern allies have reportedly appealed to Trump to delay or call off planned strikes on previous occasions, and those appeals have sometimes worked.

The Strait of Hormuz blockade deserves its own mention. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through that narrow waterway in normal times, which means the US enforcement action isn’t just a bilateral issue between Washington and Tehran.

The crypto connection: volatility on a hair trigger

The numbers tell the story. Bitcoin fell below $100K in June 2025 after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Then in April 2026, when signals of tougher action emerged, Bitcoin dropped roughly 2.9% to around $66,300. Strike pauses and ceasefire signals have sent Bitcoin surging past the $71,000 to $78,000 range.

The 24/7 nature of crypto markets means the reaction is instantaneous. There’s no closing bell to provide a cooling-off period. When a Trump tweet or a Pentagon statement drops at 2 AM, Bitcoin reprices in minutes.

What this means for investors

Bitcoin’s trajectory from above $100K in early-to-mid 2025 down to the $66,000-$78,000 range in 2026 reflects a drawdown driven not by protocol failures or regulatory crackdowns but by conventional military conflict.

The evidence from the past year suggests Bitcoin has lost some of its “digital gold” narrative. Gold typically rallies on geopolitical fear. Bitcoin has been selling off, behaving more like a risk asset than a safe haven.

The stalled negotiations in Pakistan add another layer of uncertainty. If talks collapse entirely, the probability of strikes increases significantly, and markets will need to price in a potentially prolonged military engagement rather than a one-off event.

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